· Analysis updated 09:03 UTC
Avilés Stadium vs Sporting Gijón II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.74 expected goals for Avilés Stadium and 1.72 for Sporting Gijón II, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Sporting Gijón II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting Gijón II win
60.9% probability
Expected goals
0.74 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Avilés Stadium home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting Gijón II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting Gijón II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 16% / 23% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.74 goals for Avilés Stadium and 1.72 for Sporting Gijón II, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.8%
- 0–212.7%
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Avilés Stadium
- 2026-10-18T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Langreo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Llanes · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lealtad · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Gijón II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Praviano · 1-0 (W)
Sporting Gijón II
- 2026-10-24T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Siero · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Colunga · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Caudal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Langreo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Avilés Stadium · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Gijón II | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Covadonga | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 19 |
| 3 | Condal | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 4 | Mosconia | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Caudal | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Lealtad | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Siero | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | San Martín | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Praviano | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 10 | Gijón Industrial | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Colunga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 12 | Langreo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Avilés Stadium | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | Astur | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 15 | Ceares | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | L'Entregu | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 17 | Llanes | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Andes | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Gijón II win, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.