Stade Rene Fenouillere · Analysis updated 13:04 UTC
Avranches vs Tarbes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Avranches and 0.42 for Tarbes, a combined total of 1.46. That distribution gives Avranches the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 18% for over 2.5 goals and 22% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Avranches win
50.9% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 0.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Avranches home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Tarbes away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Avranches to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 35% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Avranches and 0.42 for Tarbes, a combined 1.46 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–024.2%
- 0–023.2%
- 2–012.6%
- 1–110.1%
- 0–19.7%
Recent form
Avranches
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint-Colomban Locminé · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinan Léhon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Les Herbiers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Angoulême · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Châteaubriant · 3-0 (W)
Tarbes
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinan Léhon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Les Herbiers · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Angoulême · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Châteaubriant · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lorient II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 2 - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angoulême | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Bayonne | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Avranches | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Lorient II | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Granville | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dinan Léhon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Saint-Malo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Stade Briochin | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Le Poiré sur Vie | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Tarbes | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Saint-Colomban Locminé | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Les Herbiers | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Saumur | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | Pontivy GSI | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Châteaubriant | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | Chauray | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Avranches win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 22% and over 2.5 goals at 18%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.