· Analysis updated 06:24 UTC
Avro vs Witton Albion Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for Avro and 1.56 for Witton Albion, a combined total of 3.98. That distribution gives Avro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Avro win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
2.42 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Avro home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Witton Albion away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Avro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 19% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.42 goals for Avro and 1.56 for Witton Albion, a combined 3.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 1–17.1%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–25.5%
Recent form
Avro
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Guiseley AFC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lancaster City · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunston UTS · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gainsborough Trinity · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Witton Albion · 0-2 (L)
Witton Albion
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs South Shields · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Avro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morpeth Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crewe · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Khalsa · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Avro win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.