· Analysis updated 16:11 UTC
AVS vs Trofense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for AVS and 0.84 for Trofense, a combined total of 2.51. That distribution gives AVS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AVS win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AVS home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trofense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AVS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 24% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for AVS and 0.84 for Trofense, a combined 2.51 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–011.4%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
AVS
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sintrense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Farense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitânia Lourosa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Feirense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Chaves · 2-2 (D)
Trofense
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Leça · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guimaraes B · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Varzim · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs São João Ver · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vianense · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-31T17:30:00.000Z · AVS 1-1 Trofense (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-07-20T17:30:00.000Z · AVS 1-1 Trofense (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-07-12T09:30:00.000Z · AVS 2-1 Trofense (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AVS win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.