· Analysis updated 20:18 UTC
Awassa Kenema vs Mekelakeya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Awassa Kenema and 0.74 for Mekelakeya, a combined total of 1.38. That distribution gives Mekelakeya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 39%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 16% for over 2.5 goals and 25% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.0% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Awassa Kenema home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 27% / 39% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Awassa Kenema and 0.74 for Mekelakeya, a combined 1.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 16% and both teams to score at 25%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
61%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–025.3%
- 0–118.7%
- 1–016.0%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–27.0%
Recent form
Awassa Kenema
- 2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethiopian Medhin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mekelakeya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Adama Kenema · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mebrat Hayl · 1-1 (D)
Mekelakeya
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Mebrat Hayl | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bahardar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Mekelakeya | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Negelle Arsi | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 6 | Halaba Ketema | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Adama Kenema | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Ethiopian Medhin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Hadiya Hosaena | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Sheger Ketema | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Ethiopia Bunna | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Kedus Giorgis | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Awassa Kenema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Fasil Ketema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Welayta Dicha | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat Uni | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Sidama Bunna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gamo Chencha | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 25% and over 2.5 goals at 16%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.