· Analysis updated 17:57 UTC
Axiopolis vs Agricola Borcea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Axiopolis and 2.83 for Agricola Borcea, a combined total of 4.30. That distribution gives Agricola Borcea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Agricola Borcea win
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 2.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Axiopolis home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Agricola Borcea away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.0%
- 1–37.5%
- 2–25.9%
- 1–15.6%
- 2–35.5%
Recent form
Axiopolis
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Progresul Fundulea · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Agricola Borcea · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Oţelul II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunarea Calarasi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Înainte Modelu · 1-1 (D)
Agricola Borcea
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Lieşti · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gloria Băneasa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Recolta Gheorghe Doja · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Axiopolis · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Fundulea · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-05T14:30:00.000Z · Axiopolis 1-3 Agricola Borcea (Cupa României)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · Axiopolis 1-3 Agricola Borcea (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2025-11-01T12:00:00.000Z · Axiopolis 1-4 Agricola Borcea (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2025-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · Axiopolis 0-1 Agricola Borcea (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2025-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · Axiopolis 5-1 Agricola Borcea (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2024-11-16T12:00:00.000Z · Axiopolis 2-1 Agricola Borcea (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2024-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · Axiopolis 1-2 Agricola Borcea (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2023-11-11T12:00:00.000Z · Axiopolis 1-1 Agricola Borcea (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2023-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · Axiopolis 3-1 Agricola Borcea (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2023-08-02T16:00:00.000Z · Axiopolis 5-2 Agricola Borcea (Cupa României)
Liga III - Serie 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Agricola Borcea | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 24 |
| 2 | Progresul Fundulea | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Înainte Modelu | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Sporting Lieşti | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Agigea | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Recolta Gheorghe Doja | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Unirea Braniştea | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Axiopolis | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 9 | Dunarea Calarasi | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 10 | Gloria Băneasa | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 7 |
| 11 | FC Oţelul II | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 12 | Portul Constanta | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Agricola Borcea win, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.