· Analysis updated 07:12 UTC
Axiopolis vs Dunarea Calarasi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Axiopolis and 1.23 for Dunarea Calarasi, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Axiopolis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Axiopolis win
53.0% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Axiopolis home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dunarea Calarasi away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Axiopolis
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Progresul Fundulea · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Agricola Borcea · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Oţelul II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunarea Calarasi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Înainte Modelu · 1-1 (D)
Dunarea Calarasi
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gloria Băneasa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Recolta Gheorghe Doja · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Axiopolis · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Fundulea · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CS Afumati · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-13T12:00:00.000Z · Axiopolis 1-2 Dunarea Calarasi (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Axiopolis 2-1 Dunarea Calarasi (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2024-11-09T12:00:00.000Z · Axiopolis 0-1 Dunarea Calarasi (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2024-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · Axiopolis 0-2 Dunarea Calarasi (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2023-11-25T12:00:00.000Z · Axiopolis 1-2 Dunarea Calarasi (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2023-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · Axiopolis 1-3 Dunarea Calarasi (Liga III - Serie 3)
Liga III - Serie 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Agricola Borcea | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 27 |
| 2 | Progresul Fundulea | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 21 |
| 3 | Sporting Lieşti | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 18 |
| 4 | Unirea Braniştea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Înainte Modelu | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Axiopolis | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Agigea | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | Recolta Gheorghe Doja | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 15 |
| 9 | Dunarea Calarasi | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 10 | Gloria Băneasa | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 11 | FC Oţelul II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 7 |
| 12 | Portul Constanta | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -26 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Axiopolis win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.