Ayacucho FC vs Union Comercio Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.58 expected goals for Ayacucho FC and 1.16 for Union Comercio, a combined total of 1.74. That distribution gives Union Comercio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Union Comercio win

50.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.58 – 1.16

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ayacucho FC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Union Comercio away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union Comercio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 18% / 32% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.58 goals for Ayacucho FC and 1.16 for Union Comercio, a combined 1.74 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Ayacucho FC win18%

Draw32%

Union Comercio win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

82%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals52%

Over 2.5 goals25%

Over 3.5 goals10%

Both teams to score30%

Correct score

0–120.4%
0–017.5%
0–211.8%
1–111.8%
1–010.2%

Recent form

Ayacucho FC

2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Binacional · 7-1 (W)
2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Minas · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantil CNI · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bentín Tacna Heroica · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 2-0 (W)

Union Comercio

2026-09-27T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Molinos El Pirata · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Deportiva Agropecuaria · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T20:15:00.000Z · H vs U. San Martin · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Llacuabamba · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-23T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Carlos A. Mannucci · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Union Comercio	16	9	5	2	14	32
2	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	9	3	4	10	30
3	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	8	4	4	13	28
4	Molinos El Pirata	16	7	4	5	5	25
5	U. San Martin	16	7	3	6	9	24
6	Deportiva Agropecuaria	15	5	6	4	2	21
7	Cesar Vallejo	15	5	4	6	1	19
8	Academia Cantolao	16	3	5	8	-11	14
9	San Marcos	14	0	0	14	-43	0
1	Bentín Tacna Heroica	16	8	5	3	9	29
2	Comerciantes	16	6	8	2	9	26
3	Minas	16	6	7	3	13	25
4	Sport Huancayo 2	16	7	4	5	9	25
5	Alianza Universidad	16	5	6	5	0	21
6	Santos	16	6	3	7	-3	21
7	Ayacucho FC	16	5	4	7	-2	19
8	Estudiantil CNI	16	4	5	7	4	17
9	Deportivo Binacional	16	2	4	10	-39	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Union Comercio win, at 50.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.