· Analysis updated 09:04 UTC
Ayeyawady United vs Yadanarbon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Ayeyawady United and 2.15 for Yadanarbon, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Yadanarbon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yadanarbon win
72.0% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ayeyawady United home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yadanarbon away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yadanarbon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 10% / 18% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for Ayeyawady United and 2.15 for Yadanarbon, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
28%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–214.1%
- 0–113.1%
- 0–310.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–18.5%
Recent form
Ayeyawady United
- 2026-10-24T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Yadanarbon · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Thitsar Arman · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dagon · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs I.S.P.E · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-17T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sagaing United · 1-2 (L)
Yadanarbon
- 2026-10-24T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayeyawady United · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Hantharwady United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Myawady · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangon Royals · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T09:00:00.000Z · A vs GFA · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dagon | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Yangon Royals | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | Yadanarbon | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Shan United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 5 | Yangon United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Thitsar Arman | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | GFA | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | I.S.P.E | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Hantharwady United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | Sagaing United | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 11 | Ayeyawady United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 12 | Myawady | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yadanarbon win, at 72.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.