Ayia Napa vs PAEEK Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Ayia Napa and 1.78 for PAEEK, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives PAEEK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

PAEEK win

56.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.98 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ayia Napa home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
PAEEK away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Ayia Napa win21%

Draw23%

PAEEK win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

0–111.3%
1–111.1%
0–210.1%
1–29.8%
0–06.4%

Recent form

Ayia Napa

2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraklis Yerolakkou · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs ASIL Lysi · 1-3 (L)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Doxa · 3-0 (W)
2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs PAEEK · 6-3 (W)
2026-04-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nea Salamis · 0-3 (L)

PAEEK

2026-04-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Karmiotissa · 0-0 (D)
2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayia Napa · 3-6 (L)
2026-04-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Omonia 29is Maiou · 3-3 (D)
2026-03-21T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Doxa · 0-0 (D)
2026-03-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs MEAP Nisou · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · Ayia Napa 6-3 PAEEK (2. Division)
2026-02-21T13:00:00.000Z · Ayia Napa 0-0 PAEEK (2. Division)
2025-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · Ayia Napa 0-0 PAEEK (2. Division)
2024-10-26T12:00:00.000Z · Ayia Napa 0-2 PAEEK (2. Division)
2023-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · Ayia Napa 3-2 PAEEK (2. Division)
2023-04-09T13:30:00.000Z · Ayia Napa 0-3 PAEEK (2. Division)
2023-02-11T13:00:00.000Z · Ayia Napa 3-3 PAEEK (2. Division)
2022-11-26T12:30:00.000Z · Ayia Napa 2-0 PAEEK (2. Division)
2021-04-07T15:00:00.000Z · Ayia Napa 2-2 PAEEK (2. Division)
2020-11-04T12:30:00.000Z · Ayia Napa 2-3 PAEEK (2. Division)

2. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ethnikos Achna	3	3	0	0	10	9
2	ASIL Lysi	3	2	1	0	4	7
3	Enosis	3	2	1	0	4	7
4	Doxa	3	2	1	0	2	7
5	PAEEK	3	2	0	1	0	6
6	Ermis	3	2	0	1	2	6
7	APEA	3	1	2	0	1	5
8	Spartakos Kitiou	3	1	1	1	2	4
9	Digenis Morphou	3	1	1	1	1	4
10	Iraklis Yerolakkou	3	1	1	1	0	4
11	Polemidion	3	1	0	2	-3	3
12	Ayia Napa	3	0	1	2	-3	1
13	Halkanoras	3	0	1	2	-3	1
14	Akritas	3	0	1	2	-3	1
15	MEAP Nisou	3	0	1	2	-8	1
16	Anagennisi Deryneia	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is PAEEK win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.