Ayutthaya FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.64 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.64

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ayutthaya FC home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 33% / 24% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.64 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ayutthaya FC win33%

Draw24%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC win44%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–111.0%
1–29.0%
0–17.9%
2–17.7%
1–06.7%

Recent form

Ayutthaya FC

2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Uthai Thani · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sisaket United · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ratchaburi · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Buriram United · 0-5 (L)
2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Port FC · 1-4 (L)

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Muang Loei United · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Police Tero · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chainat · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mahasarakham United · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Chiangmai United · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Thai League 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Port FC	6	5	0	1	7	15
2	Prachuap	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Buriram United	6	4	1	1	4	13
4	Ratchaburi	6	3	1	2	6	10
5	Uthai Thani	6	3	1	2	4	10
6	Ayutthaya FC	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Bangkok United	6	3	1	2	2	10
8	Sisaket United	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	BG Pathum United	6	2	3	1	2	9
10	Sukhothai FC	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Rayong FC	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Lamphun Warrior	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Chiangrai United	6	1	1	4	-4	4
14	Pattani	6	1	1	4	-6	4
15	Chonburi FC	6	1	0	5	-4	3
16	Rasi Salai United	6	0	1	5	-11	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.