Ayutthaya FC vs Ratchaburi Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.47 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Ratchaburi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

70.5% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.14 – 1.47

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ayutthaya FC home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ratchaburi away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ratchaburi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 29% / 26% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.47 for Ratchaburi, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ayutthaya FC win29%

Draw26%

Ratchaburi win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.3%
0–110.8%
1–29.1%
1–08.4%
0–27.9%

Recent form

Ayutthaya FC

2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Uthai Thani · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sisaket United · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ratchaburi · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Buriram United · 0-5 (L)
2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Port FC · 1-4 (L)

Ratchaburi

2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Chonburi FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pattani · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Chiangrai United · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyoto Sanga · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Sukhothai FC · 6-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Thai League 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Port FC	6	5	0	1	7	15
2	Buriram United	6	4	1	1	4	13
3	Prachuap	5	4	0	1	5	12
4	Ratchaburi	6	3	1	2	6	10
5	Uthai Thani	5	3	1	1	5	10
6	Sisaket United	6	3	1	2	0	10
7	BG Pathum United	6	2	3	1	2	9
8	Bangkok United	5	3	0	2	2	9
9	Rayong FC	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Ayutthaya FC	5	2	1	2	-1	7
11	Sukhothai FC	5	2	0	3	-4	6
12	Lamphun Warrior	5	1	1	3	-4	4
13	Chiangrai United	6	1	1	4	-4	4
14	Pattani	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	Chonburi FC	6	1	0	5	-4	3
16	Rasi Salai United	5	0	1	4	-8	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.