AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.67 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.01 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives AZ Alkmaar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

AZ Alkmaar win

72.5% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.67 – 1.01

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

AZ Alkmaar home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
ADO Den Haag away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AZ Alkmaar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 16% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.67 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.01 for ADO Den Haag, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

AZ Alkmaar win73%

Draw16%

ADO Den Haag win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

28%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

2–19.1%
2–09.0%
3–18.1%
3–08.0%
1–16.8%

Recent form

AZ Alkmaar

2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Cambuur · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 1-0 (W)

ADO Den Haag

2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	9	7	2	0	21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	6	2	1	10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	6	1	2	15	19
4	Ajax	9	5	3	1	15	18
5	Twente	9	5	2	2	7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	4	3	2	-1	15
7	Heerenveen	10	4	3	3	5	15
8	Groningen	9	4	2	3	3	14
9	GO Ahead Eagles	10	3	5	2	0	14
10	Cambuur	10	3	3	4	-3	12
11	Utrecht	10	3	3	4	-10	12
12	Excelsior	9	3	2	4	-2	11
13	NEC Nijmegen	9	2	4	3	-1	10
14	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-6	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	2	2	6	-12	8
16	Telstar	10	1	3	6	-9	6
17	ADO Den Haag	10	1	3	6	-10	6
18	Willem II	10	0	2	8	-22	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is AZ Alkmaar win, at 72.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.