AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.65 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives AZ Alkmaar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 1.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

AZ Alkmaar home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Excelsior away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

AZ Alkmaar win41%

Draw23%

Excelsior win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.5%
2–18.5%
1–27.9%
2–27.0%
1–05.8%

Recent form

AZ Alkmaar

2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 3-2 (W)

Excelsior

2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Groningen · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-02-14T17:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2026-01-21T17:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2024-07-13T12:00:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 8-0 Excelsior (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-03-10T11:15:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2023-11-04T17:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2023-02-10T19:00:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 5-0 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2023-01-11T17:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Excelsior (KNVB Beker)
2022-10-23T10:15:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2019-05-15T17:30:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 2-4 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2018-12-15T18:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Excelsior (Eredivisie)

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	9	7	2	0	21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	6	2	1	10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	6	1	2	15	19
4	Ajax	9	5	3	1	15	18
5	Twente	9	5	2	2	7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	4	3	2	-1	15
7	Groningen	9	4	2	3	3	14
8	Heerenveen	9	3	3	3	4	12
9	GO Ahead Eagles	9	2	5	2	-1	11
10	Excelsior	9	3	2	4	-2	11
11	Utrecht	9	3	2	4	-10	11
12	NEC Nijmegen	9	2	4	3	-1	10
13	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-6	9
14	Cambuur	9	2	3	4	-8	9
15	PEC Zwolle	9	2	1	6	-12	7
16	Telstar	9	1	3	5	-8	6
17	ADO Den Haag	9	1	3	5	-9	6
18	Willem II	9	0	2	7	-17	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.