AZ Alkmaar vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.43 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives AZ Alkmaar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

AZ Alkmaar win

53.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.10 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

AZ Alkmaar home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Fortuna Sittard away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

AZ Alkmaar win53%

Draw21%

Fortuna Sittard win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

2–19.3%
1–18.8%
2–26.6%
2–06.5%
3–16.5%

Recent form

AZ Alkmaar

2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Cambuur · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 1-0 (W)

Fortuna Sittard

2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Genk · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ajax · 1-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)
2026-04-04T16:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)
2025-12-21T15:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 3-4 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)
2025-02-23T15:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)
2024-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 0-1 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)
2024-02-17T17:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)
2023-10-01T14:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)
2023-04-16T18:00:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 3-0 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)
2023-01-22T15:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)
2022-01-16T15:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	9	7	2	0	21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	6	2	1	10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	6	1	2	15	19
4	Ajax	9	5	3	1	15	18
5	Twente	9	5	2	2	7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	4	3	2	-1	15
7	Heerenveen	10	4	3	3	5	15
8	Groningen	9	4	2	3	3	14
9	GO Ahead Eagles	10	3	5	2	0	14
10	Cambuur	10	3	3	4	-3	12
11	Utrecht	10	3	3	4	-10	12
12	Excelsior	9	3	2	4	-2	11
13	NEC Nijmegen	9	2	4	3	-1	10
14	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-6	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	2	2	6	-12	8
16	Telstar	10	1	3	6	-9	6
17	ADO Den Haag	10	1	3	6	-10	6
18	Willem II	10	0	2	8	-22	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is AZ Alkmaar win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.