AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.53 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives AZ Alkmaar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

AZ Alkmaar win

45.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

AZ Alkmaar home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heerenveen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

AZ Alkmaar win46%

Draw22%

Heerenveen win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.7%
2–18.9%
1–27.4%
2–26.8%
1–06.3%

Recent form

AZ Alkmaar

2026-10-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Cambuur · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 0-2 (L)

Heerenveen

2026-10-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs ADO Den Haag · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 3-2 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
2026-04-12T14:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 3-0 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
2025-11-23T11:15:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 1-3 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
2025-05-22T16:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
2025-03-02T11:15:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 1-3 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
2024-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 9-1 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
2024-01-28T11:15:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 2-2 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
2023-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 3-0 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
2023-04-01T14:30:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)
2023-01-14T17:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Heerenveen (Eredivisie)

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	10	7	3	0	21	24
2	Ajax	10	6	3	1	16	21
3	PSV Eindhoven	10	6	2	2	15	20
4	Twente	10	6	2	2	9	20
5	AZ Alkmaar	10	6	2	2	8	20
6	Fortuna Sittard	10	5	3	2	0	18
7	Heerenveen	10	4	3	3	5	15
8	Groningen	10	4	3	3	3	15
9	GO Ahead Eagles	10	3	5	2	0	14
10	Cambuur	10	3	3	4	-3	12
11	Utrecht	10	3	3	4	-10	12
12	NEC Nijmegen	10	2	5	3	-1	11
13	Excelsior	10	3	2	5	-3	11
14	Sparta Rotterdam	10	2	3	5	-7	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	2	2	6	-12	8
16	Telstar	10	1	3	6	-9	6
17	ADO Den Haag	10	1	3	6	-10	6
18	Willem II	10	0	2	8	-22	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is AZ Alkmaar win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.