AFAS Stadion · Referee Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands · Analysis updated 13:50 UTC
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.50 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.00 for Willem II, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives AZ Alkmaar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AZ Alkmaar win
83.1% probability
Expected goals
3.50 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AZ Alkmaar home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Willem II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–07.9%
- 3–17.9%
- 4–06.9%
- 4–16.9%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
AZ Alkmaar
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:45:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 5-2 (W)
Willem II
- 2026-10-11T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem II (Eredivisie)
- 2025-02-02T19:00:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Willem II (Eredivisie)
- 2024-11-10T15:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Willem II (Eredivisie)
- 2022-03-20T19:00:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 2-2 Willem II (Eredivisie)
- 2021-12-18T19:00:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Willem II (Eredivisie)
- 2021-04-03T18:00:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Willem II (Eredivisie)
- 2020-12-20T15:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 5-3 Willem II (Eredivisie)
- 2020-01-18T19:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 1-3 Willem II (Eredivisie)
- 2019-10-06T14:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem II (Eredivisie)
- 2019-02-28T19:45:00.000Z · AZ Alkmaar 2-2 Willem II (KNVB Beker)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AZ Alkmaar win, at 83.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.