Stadio Comunale Donato Curcio · Analysis updated 17:02 UTC
AZ Picerno vs Barletta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for AZ Picerno and 1.45 for Barletta, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives AZ Picerno the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AZ Picerno home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Barletta away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AZ Picerno to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 23% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for AZ Picerno and 1.45 for Barletta, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.6%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
AZ Picerno
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Barletta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cosenza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Potenza · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Audace Cerignola · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Team Altamura · 1-2 (L)
Barletta
- 2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Giugliano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Potenza · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Catania · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Salernitana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Casarano · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.