Stadio Comunale Donato Curcio · Analysis updated 02:57 UTC
AZ Picerno vs Savoia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for AZ Picerno and 1.29 for Savoia, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives AZ Picerno the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AZ Picerno win
51.8% probability
Expected goals
1.91 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AZ Picerno home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Savoia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AZ Picerno to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.91 goals for AZ Picerno and 1.29 for Savoia, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
AZ Picerno
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Barletta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cosenza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Potenza · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Audace Cerignola · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Team Altamura · 1-2 (L)
Savoia
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Audace Cerignola · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter U23 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs SS Monopoli · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cavese · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Casarano · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 26 |
| 2 | Bari | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 3 | Sorrento | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 4 | Catania | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 19 |
| 5 | SS Monopoli | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 6 | Audace Cerignola | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Scafatese | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 | Casertana | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Cavese | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Salernitana | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Inter U23 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 12 | Foggia | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | AZ Picerno | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 | Team Altamura | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 15 | Barletta | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Savoia | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Casarano | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 10 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 6 |
| 20 | Crotone | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AZ Picerno win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.