AFAS Trainingscomplex · Referee T. van der Gugten · Analysis updated 17:27 UTC
AZ W vs Excelsior W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for AZ W and 1.65 for Excelsior W, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives AZ W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AZ W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Excelsior W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.5%
Recent form
AZ W
- 2026-10-04T14:45:00.000Z · A vs De Graafschap W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Twente W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ajax W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs PSV/Eindhoven W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht W · 1-0 (W)
Excelsior W
- 2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs AZ W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-03T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Ajax W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T14:45:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs NAC Breda W · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z · AZ W 1-0 Excelsior W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2025-09-21T14:45:00.000Z · AZ W 3-1 Excelsior W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2025-04-19T14:30:00.000Z · AZ W 3-1 Excelsior W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2024-10-19T14:30:00.000Z · AZ W 4-0 Excelsior W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2024-01-28T15:45:00.000Z · AZ W 2-1 Excelsior W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2023-09-08T17:30:00.000Z · AZ W 1-1 Excelsior W (Eredivisie Women)
Eredivisie Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Twente W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 18 |
| 2 | Ajax W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | AZ W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 4 | PSV/Eindhoven W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Heerenveen W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 6 | ADO Den Haag W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 7 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 8 | De Graafschap W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 9 | Feyenoord W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 10 | Utrecht W | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.