Azam Complex Stadium · Analysis updated 12:46 UTC
Azam vs Namungo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Azam and 1.08 for Namungo, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Azam the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Azam win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Azam home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Namungo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–16.2%
Recent form
Azam
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Simba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Namungo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kagera Sugar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Geita Gold · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pamba Jiji · 2-1 (W)
Namungo
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dodoma Jiji · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Azam · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Singida Black Stars · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs JKT Tanzania · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Fountain Gate · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-05T15:30:00.000Z · Azam 1-0 Namungo (Ligi kuu Bara)
- 2025-11-09T16:00:00.000Z · Azam 1-1 Namungo (Ligi kuu Bara)
- 2025-02-27T16:00:00.000Z · Azam 1-1 Namungo (Ligi kuu Bara)
- 2024-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · Azam 1-0 Namungo (Ligi kuu Bara)
- 2024-04-14T16:00:00.000Z · Azam 2-0 Namungo (Ligi kuu Bara)
- 2023-10-27T17:30:00.000Z · Azam 1-3 Namungo (Ligi kuu Bara)
- 2023-05-14T17:15:00.000Z · Azam 1-2 Namungo (Ligi kuu Bara)
- 2022-11-20T10:00:00.000Z · Azam 1-0 Namungo (Ligi kuu Bara)
- 2022-03-16T13:00:00.000Z · Azam 2-1 Namungo (Ligi kuu Bara)
- 2022-01-06T17:15:00.000Z · Azam 1-0 Namungo (Friendlies Clubs)
Ligi kuu Bara table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | Young Africans | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Azam | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 5 | Dodoma Jiji | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Namungo | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | Mashujaa | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Singida Black Stars | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Mbeya City | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Tabora United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Geita Gold | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | Fountain Gate | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Azam win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.