Azam Complex Stadium · Analysis updated 09:56 UTC
Azam vs Pamba Jiji Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Azam and 0.87 for Pamba Jiji, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Azam the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Azam win
64.0% probability
Expected goals
2.02 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Azam home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pamba Jiji away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Azam to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 21% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.02 goals for Azam and 0.87 for Pamba Jiji, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.3%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 3–07.6%
Recent form
Azam
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Simba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Namungo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kagera Sugar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Geita Gold · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pamba Jiji · 2-1 (W)
Pamba Jiji
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tabora United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs JKT Tanzania · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Africans · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Azam · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-19T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Simba · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligi kuu Bara table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | Young Africans | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Azam | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 5 | Dodoma Jiji | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Namungo | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | Mashujaa | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Singida Black Stars | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Mbeya City | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Tabora United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Geita Gold | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | Fountain Gate | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Azam win, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.