Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium · Analysis updated 06:11 UTC
Azerbaijan vs St. Lucia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.57 expected goals for Azerbaijan and 1.36 for St. Lucia, a combined total of 4.92. That distribution gives Azerbaijan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Azerbaijan win
77.9% probability
Expected goals
3.57 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Azerbaijan home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Azerbaijan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 12% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.57 goals for Azerbaijan and 1.36 for St. Lucia, a combined 4.92 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 86% and both teams to score at 71%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.5%
- 4–16.7%
- 2–16.3%
- 3–05.5%
- 3–25.1%
Recent form
Azerbaijan
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Liechtenstein · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lithuania · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tajikistan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marino · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Malta · 0-2 (L)
St. Lucia
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FIFA Series table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulgaria | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| 2 | Aruba | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Puerto Rico | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 4 | Rwanda | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 5 | Australia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Kazakhstan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Azerbaijan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | Kenya | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Venezuela | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Finland | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Uzbekistan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Tanzania | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 13 | Indonesia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Guam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | US Virgin Islands | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | New Zealand | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Cameroon | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | China | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 19 | Chile | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Liechtenstein | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 22 | Sierra Leone | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | Comoros | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 24 | Cape Verde Islands | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 25 | Gabon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 26 | Estonia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 27 | Namibia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Trinidad and Tobago | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 29 | St. Lucia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 30 | Curaçao | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 31 | Grenada | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
| 32 | American Samoa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
| 33 | Macau | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
| 34 | Solomon Islands | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Azerbaijan win, at 77.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.