Azuaga vs Guadiana Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.31 expected goals for Azuaga and 0.58 for Guadiana, a combined total of 3.89. That distribution gives Azuaga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 88%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 88% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Azuaga win

88.1% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.31 – 0.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Azuaga home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Azuaga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 88%, against 88% / 8% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.31 goals for Azuaga and 0.58 for Guadiana, a combined 3.89 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 42%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Azuaga win88%

Draw8%

Guadiana win4%

Double chance 1X

97%

Double chance 12

92%

Double chance X2

12%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

3–012.3%
2–011.2%
4–010.2%
3–17.2%
1–06.8%

Recent form

Azuaga

2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaraíz · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Villanovense · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-04T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Guadiana · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-27T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Jerez · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Cabeza Buey · 2-1 (W)

Guadiana

2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Villanovense · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Jerez · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-04T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Azuaga · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Cabeza Buey · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Montijo · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Azuaga	8	7	0	1	12	21
2	Llerenense	8	6	2	0	8	20
3	Moralo	8	5	3	0	7	18
4	Villanovense	8	5	1	2	9	16
5	Castuera	8	4	2	2	9	14
6	Puebla Calzada	8	3	2	3	2	11
7	Jerez	8	3	2	3	-2	11
8	Villafranca	8	3	1	4	-1	10
9	Cabeza Buey	7	2	3	2	1	9
10	CD Zafra	8	2	3	3	0	9
11	Montijo	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Gévora	7	2	2	3	-3	8
13	Santa Amalia	7	1	4	2	-2	7
14	Plasencia	8	1	4	3	-5	7
15	Quintana	7	1	3	3	-4	6
16	Jaraíz	7	1	2	4	-4	5
17	Atlético Pueblonuevo	7	0	3	4	-11	3
18	Guadiana	7	0	1	6	-14	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Azuaga win, at 88.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 88% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.