Estadio San Miguel · Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
Azuqueca vs Guadalajara II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Azuqueca and 1.00 for Guadalajara II, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Azuqueca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Azuqueca win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Azuqueca home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guadalajara II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Azuqueca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 25% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Azuqueca and 1.00 for Guadalajara II, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.0%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Azuqueca
- 2026-05-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Marchamalo · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sonseca · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarrubia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Tarancón · 1-2 (L)
Guadalajara II
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Quintanar del Rey · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Socuéllamos · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tarancón · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Marchamalo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs CD Villa · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T14:30:00.000Z · Azuqueca 2-0 Guadalajara II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
- 2026-01-11T15:00:00.000Z · Azuqueca 0-2 Guadalajara II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 2 | Torrijos | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Tarancón | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Illescas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Toledo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Villarrobledo | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 7 | Noblejas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | CD Villa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Almansa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Villacañas | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Marchamalo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 12 | San Clemente | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Villarrubia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | La Solana | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Quintanar del Rey | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Socuéllamos | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Guadalajara II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Azuqueca win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.