Estadio San Miguel · Analysis updated 04:11 UTC
Azuqueca vs Illescas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Azuqueca and 1.18 for Illescas, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Azuqueca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Azuqueca win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Azuqueca home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Illescas away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Azuqueca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Azuqueca and 1.18 for Illescas, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.0%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Azuqueca
- 2026-05-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Marchamalo · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sonseca · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarrubia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Tarancón · 1-2 (L)
Illescas
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Villacañas · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs La Solana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Noblejas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarrubia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Quintanar del Rey · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Toledo | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Villarrobledo | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 4 | CD Villa | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Villacañas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Tarancón | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Illescas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Torrijos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Noblejas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | San Clemente | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Almansa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Marchamalo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Villarrubia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Socuéllamos | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | La Solana | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Quintanar del Rey | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Huracán Balazote | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Guadalajara II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Azuqueca win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.