Azzurri Bienne vs Chênois Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.56 expected goals for Azzurri Bienne and 1.14 for Chênois, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Azzurri Bienne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Azzurri Bienne win

67.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.56 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Azzurri Bienne home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chênois away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Azzurri Bienne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 17% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.56 goals for Azzurri Bienne and 1.14 for Chênois, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Azzurri Bienne win68%

Draw17%

Chênois win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

2–19.2%
2–08.1%
3–17.9%
1–17.2%
3–06.9%

Recent form

Azzurri Bienne

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Muri-Gümligen · 4-4 (D)
2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Echallens · 6-1 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Naters · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs La Chaux-de-Fonds · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Monthey · 2-1 (W)

Chênois

2026-10-24T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Lausanne Sport II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Payerne · 2-5 (L)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Servette II · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Vevey Sports · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Portalban / Gletterens · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Azzurri Bienne	11	9	0	2	16	27
2	Prishtina Bern	11	8	2	1	22	26
3	Servette II	11	6	4	1	3	22
4	Lausanne Sport II	11	4	5	2	7	17
5	Portalban / Gletterens	11	5	2	4	6	17
6	Naters	11	5	2	4	-6	17
7	Sion II	11	4	4	3	1	16
8	Monthey	11	3	5	3	1	14
9	Chênois	11	4	2	5	-1	14
10	Lancy	11	4	1	6	-2	13
11	La Chaux-de-Fonds	11	4	1	6	-15	13
12	Echallens	11	3	3	5	-10	12
13	Meyrin	11	3	2	6	2	11
14	Stade Payerne	11	3	2	6	-7	11
15	Coffrane	11	2	4	5	0	10
16	Vevey Sports	11	1	1	9	-17	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Azzurri Bienne win, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.