· Analysis updated 20:40 UTC
Bærum vs Lillestrom Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.37 expected goals for Bærum and 1.56 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Bærum the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bærum win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
2.37 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bærum home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lillestrom away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bærum to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 20% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.37 goals for Bærum and 1.56 for Lillestrom, a combined 3.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.2%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–25.7%
Recent form
Bærum
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Oslo · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordstrand · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Konnerud · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjondalen · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SF Grei · 7-1 (W)
Lillestrom
- 2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Molde · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bærum · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Viking · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Valerenga · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bærum win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.