· Analysis updated 10:32 UTC
Bærum vs Nordstrand Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.12 expected goals for Bærum and 1.27 for Nordstrand, a combined total of 4.39. That distribution gives Bærum the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bærum win
73.9% probability
Expected goals
3.12 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bærum home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nordstrand away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bærum to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 14% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.12 goals for Bærum and 1.27 for Nordstrand, a combined 4.39 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.0%
- 2–17.7%
- 3–06.3%
- 4–16.2%
- 2–06.0%
Recent form
Bærum
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Oslo · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordstrand · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Konnerud · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjondalen · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SF Grei · 7-1 (W)
Nordstrand
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ullern · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Heming · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gamle Oslo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vålerenga II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Asker · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asker | 25 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 53 | 67 |
| 2 | Heming | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 50 |
| 3 | Gamle Oslo | 25 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 45 |
| 4 | IF Ready | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 42 |
| 5 | Vålerenga II | 24 | 13 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 40 |
| 6 | Bærum | 25 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 39 |
| 7 | Union Carl Berner | 25 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 38 |
| 8 | Frigg | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -9 | 33 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv Oslo | 25 | 9 | 2 | 14 | -24 | 29 |
| 10 | KFUM II | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | -13 | 28 |
| 11 | SF Grei | 25 | 9 | 1 | 15 | -25 | 28 |
| 12 | Ullern | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | -13 | 26 |
| 13 | Nordstrand | 25 | 6 | 2 | 17 | -24 | 20 |
| 14 | Konnerud | 25 | 5 | 2 | 18 | -28 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bærum win, at 73.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.