Bærum vs Vålerenga II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.41 expected goals for Bærum and 1.82 for Vålerenga II, a combined total of 5.23. That distribution gives Bærum the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bærum win

67.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.41 – 1.82

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bærum home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vålerenga II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bærum to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 15% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.41 goals for Bærum and 1.82 for Vålerenga II, a combined 5.23 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bærum win68%

Draw15%

Vålerenga II win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals89%

Over 3.5 goals76%

Both teams to score80%

Correct score

3–16.4%
3–25.9%
2–15.7%
4–15.5%
2–25.2%

Recent form

Bærum

2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Oslo · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordstrand · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Konnerud · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjondalen · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SF Grei · 7-1 (W)

Vålerenga II

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Frigg · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nordstrand · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bærum · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ullern · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gamle Oslo · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Asker	24	21	1	2	49	64
2	Heming	24	14	5	5	24	47
3	Gamle Oslo	24	14	2	8	27	44
4	Vålerenga II	24	13	1	10	-9	40
5	IF Ready	24	11	6	7	14	39
6	Bærum	24	12	2	10	20	38
7	Union Carl Berner	24	12	2	10	8	38
8	Frigg	24	9	6	9	-5	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	24	9	2	13	-22	29
10	KFUM II	24	8	4	12	-13	28
11	SF Grei	24	8	1	15	-29	25
12	Ullern	24	7	2	15	-19	23
13	Nordstrand	24	6	2	16	-18	20
14	Konnerud	24	5	2	17	-27	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bærum win, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.