· Analysis updated 06:32 UTC
Babelsberg U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.78 expected goals for Babelsberg U19 and 1.53 for Arminia Bielefeld U19, a combined total of 4.30. That distribution gives Babelsberg U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Babelsberg U19 win
63.7% probability
Expected goals
2.78 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Babelsberg U19 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arminia Bielefeld U19 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Babelsberg U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 17% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.78 goals for Babelsberg U19 and 1.53 for Arminia Bielefeld U19, a combined 4.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 3–17.4%
- 2–26.1%
- 1–15.7%
- 3–25.6%
Recent form
Babelsberg U19
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunsch U19 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemnitzer FC U19 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Köln U19 · 5-3 (W)
Arminia Bielefeld U19
- 2026-08-23T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Preußen Münster U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Havelse U19 · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lübeck U19 · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-05-16T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Babelsberg U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Blumenthaler SV U19 · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T09:00:00.000Z · Babelsberg U19 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2026-03-14T10:00:00.000Z · Babelsberg U19 4-1 Arminia Bielefeld U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Babelsberg U19 win, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.