· Analysis updated 10:42 UTC
Babelsberg U19 vs Energie Cottbus U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Babelsberg U19 and 1.72 for Energie Cottbus U19, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Babelsberg U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Babelsberg U19 win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Babelsberg U19 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Energie Cottbus U19 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Babelsberg U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 20% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Babelsberg U19 and 1.72 for Energie Cottbus U19, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 1–17.2%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–16.2%
- 1–26.2%
Recent form
Babelsberg U19
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunsch U19 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemnitzer FC U19 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Köln U19 · 5-3 (W)
Energie Cottbus U19
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Chemnitzer FC U19 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Braunsch U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · A vs MSV Duisburg U19 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Carl Zeiss Jena U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hallescher FC U19 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · Babelsberg U19 0-4 Energie Cottbus U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2025-04-05T10:00:00.000Z · Babelsberg U19 0-3 Energie Cottbus U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2025-02-08T11:00:00.000Z · Babelsberg U19 0-1 Energie Cottbus U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Babelsberg U19 win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.