· Analysis updated 07:09 UTC
Babelsberg U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Babelsberg U19 and 1.79 for Mainz 05 U19, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives Babelsberg U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Babelsberg U19 win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Babelsberg U19 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mainz 05 U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Babelsberg U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 20% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Babelsberg U19 and 1.79 for Mainz 05 U19, a combined 3.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–15.8%
Recent form
Babelsberg U19
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunsch U19 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemnitzer FC U19 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Köln U19 · 5-3 (W)
Mainz 05 U19
- 2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Köln U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Augsburg U19 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoffenheim U19 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Babelsberg U19 win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.