· Analysis updated 12:11 UTC
Babelsberg U19 vs Union Berlin U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Babelsberg U19 and 2.75 for Union Berlin U19, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Union Berlin U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Union Berlin U19 win
68.8% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 2.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Babelsberg U19 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Union Berlin U19 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union Berlin U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 15% / 16% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Babelsberg U19 and 2.75 for Union Berlin U19, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.7%
- 1–37.9%
- 0–26.9%
- 0–36.3%
- 1–16.3%
Recent form
Babelsberg U19
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunsch U19 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemnitzer FC U19 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Köln U19 · 5-3 (W)
Union Berlin U19
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hallescher FC U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Babelsberg U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Energie Cottbus U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Carl Zeiss Jena U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs BAK 07 U19 · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · Babelsberg U19 2-3 Union Berlin U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Union Berlin U19 win, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.