Babrungas vs Hegelmann II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Babrungas and 1.18 for Hegelmann II, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Babrungas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Babrungas win

58.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.10 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Babrungas home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Babrungas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Babrungas and 1.18 for Hegelmann II, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 61%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Babrungas win59%

Draw21%

Hegelmann II win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

2–19.8%
1–19.3%
2–08.3%
1–07.9%
3–16.9%

Recent form

Babrungas

2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hegelmann II · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Minija · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Jonava · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Žalgiris II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atmosfera · 3-2 (W)

Hegelmann II

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1 Lyga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Babrungas	28	22	4	2	39	70
2	Minija	27	22	1	4	53	67
3	Be1 NFA	27	18	3	6	21	57
4	Žalgiris II	28	15	4	9	8	49
5	BFA	28	14	4	10	1	46
6	Tauras	27	13	5	9	11	44
7	Dainava	28	12	8	8	11	44
8	Neptūną Klaipėda	28	14	2	12	-2	44
9	Atmosfera	27	10	7	10	8	37
10	Jonava	28	8	6	14	-7	30
11	Garliava	28	8	5	15	-3	29
12	Kauno Žalgiris II	28	8	2	18	-21	26
13	Hegelmann II	28	8	2	18	-29	26
14	Transinvest 2	27	7	4	16	-27	25
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	4	6	17	-30	18
16	Ekranas	28	5	3	20	-33	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Babrungas win, at 58.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.