Badajoz vs Marbella Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Badajoz and 1.10 for Marbella, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Badajoz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Badajoz home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marbella away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Badajoz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Badajoz and 1.10 for Marbella, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Badajoz win42%

Draw27%

Marbella win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–112.9%
1–011.7%
0–19.7%
0–08.8%
2–18.5%

Recent form

Badajoz

2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla Atletico · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Las Palmas II · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Xerez · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tenerife II · 2-1 (W)

Marbella

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Badajoz · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Puente Genil · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Central · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla Atletico · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Betis II	6	4	2	0	8	14
2	Recreativo Huelva	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	Ciudad de Lucena	6	3	2	1	5	11
4	Badajoz	6	3	2	1	2	11
5	Tenerife II	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Estepona	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Don Benito	6	3	1	2	1	10
8	Linares Deportivo	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	Mijas Las Lagunas	6	2	3	1	2	9
10	Sevilla Atletico	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Puente Genil	6	2	1	3	1	7
12	Sanluqueño	6	1	4	1	0	7
13	Xerez	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Atlético Central	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	Marbella	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Las Palmas II	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Tamaraceite	6	1	0	5	-8	3
18	Antoniano	6	0	2	4	-6	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.