· Analysis updated 01:38 UTC
Badalona vs Mollerussa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Badalona and 0.58 for Mollerussa, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Badalona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Badalona win
53.7% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Badalona home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mollerussa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Badalona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 30% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Badalona and 0.58 for Mollerussa, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.0%
- 0–015.7%
- 2–012.8%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–19.0%
Recent form
Badalona
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlètic Lleida · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vilanova · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Tona · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs San Cristóbal · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vilassar Mar · 2-0 (W)
Mollerussa
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerdanyola del Vallès · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cornellà · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlètic Lleida · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vilanova · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tona · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Hospitalet | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 2 | Montañesa | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Pobla Mafumet | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Vilanova | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Martinenc | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Atlètic Lleida | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Cerdanyola del Vallès | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Grama | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 |
| 9 | Europa II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Badalona | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Cornellà | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | Tona | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | L'Escala | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Peralada | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 16 | Mollerussa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 17 | Vilassar Mar | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 | San Cristóbal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Badalona win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.