Esp Stadium · Analysis updated 16:11 UTC
Baden vs FC Wohlen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Baden and 1.30 for FC Wohlen, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Baden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Baden win
51.6% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Baden home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Wohlen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Baden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Baden and 1.30 for FC Wohlen, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
Baden
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gossau · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Taverne · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Locarno · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dietikon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tuggen · 1-2 (L)
FC Wohlen
- 2026-09-30T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Schötz · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Buochs · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Thun II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Grasshopper II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Black Stars · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Baden win, at 51.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.