· Analysis updated 16:33 UTC
Baden vs Muttenz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Baden and 1.72 for Muttenz, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Baden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Baden home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Muttenz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Baden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 22% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Baden and 1.72 for Muttenz, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.9%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.2%
Recent form
Baden
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gossau · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Taverne · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Locarno · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dietikon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tuggen · 1-2 (L)
Muttenz
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Schötz · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Thalwil · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Thun II · 6-5 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Black Stars · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Münsingen · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-04T13:00:00.000Z · Baden 2-3 Muttenz (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-06-19T14:00:00.000Z · Baden 4-1 Muttenz (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
- 2019-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · Baden 4-2 Muttenz (1. Liga Classic - Group 2)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.