Baden vs Widnau Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Baden and 0.73 for Widnau, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Baden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Baden win

69.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.10 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Baden home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Widnau away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Baden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 19% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Baden and 0.73 for Widnau, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Baden win69%

Draw19%

Widnau win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

2–013.1%
1–012.5%
2–19.5%
3–09.2%
1–19.0%

Recent form

Baden

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gossau · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Taverne · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Locarno · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dietikon · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tuggen · 1-2 (L)

Widnau

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eschen / Mauren · 4-4 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gossau · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Freienbach · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Taverne · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Winterthur II · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Liga Classic - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	St. Gallen II	10	7	1	2	5	22
2	Tuggen	10	6	3	1	11	21
3	Taverne	10	6	2	2	13	20
4	Thalwil	10	4	4	2	5	16
5	Baden	10	5	1	4	4	16
6	Kosova	10	4	4	2	3	16
7	Collina d'Oro	10	4	3	3	-1	15
8	Dietikon	10	4	2	4	0	14
9	Gossau	10	4	2	4	-4	14
10	Locarno	10	2	4	4	-1	10
11	Freienbach	10	2	4	4	-4	10
12	Wettswil-Bonstetten	10	2	3	5	-3	9
13	Winterthur II	9	3	0	6	-4	9
14	Eschen / Mauren	9	2	3	4	-7	9
15	Mendrisio	10	1	5	4	-4	8
16	Widnau	10	1	3	6	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Baden win, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.