· Analysis updated 14:37 UTC
Bahla vs Al-Nahda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Bahla and 1.28 for Al-Nahda, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Al-Nahda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.7% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bahla home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Nahda away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Nahda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 36% / 27% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Bahla and 1.28 for Al-Nahda, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–09.9%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Bahla
- 2026-08-30T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Seeb · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-24T13:50:00.000Z · H vs Dhofar · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-18T13:55:00.000Z · A vs Sur · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T15:25:00.000Z · A vs Smail · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-18T15:20:00.000Z · H vs Al-Nahda · 2-1 (W)
Al-Nahda
- 2026-10-14T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Faisaly · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sohar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:35:00.000Z · A vs Ibri · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T13:35:00.000Z · H vs Saham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Taawon · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Professional League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.