· Analysis updated 13:08 UTC
Bahrain SC vs Al Ahli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Bahrain SC and 1.78 for Al Ahli, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Al Ahli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Ahli win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bahrain SC home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Ahli away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Ahli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 18% / 23% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Bahrain SC and 1.78 for Al Ahli, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 0–211.4%
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
Bahrain SC
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Riffa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Najma · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Malkiya · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-17T14:25:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli · 1-2 (L)
Al Ahli
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ittifaq Maqaba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hidd · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Muharraq · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Budaiya · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Hidd · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Ahli win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.