· Analysis updated 15:24 UTC
Bahrain vs Egypt B Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Bahrain and 1.60 for Egypt B, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Egypt B the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bahrain home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Egypt B to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 32% / 24% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for Bahrain and 1.60 for Egypt B, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–17.5%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
Bahrain
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Yemen · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs United Arab Emirates · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Qatar · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Georgia · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-12-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudan · 3-1 (W)
Egypt B
- 2025-11-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Algeria B · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-11-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Algeria B · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bahrain · 4-0 (W)
- 2025-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco B · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · Bahrain 0-4 Egypt B (Friendlies)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.