· Analysis updated 10:14 UTC
Bahrain vs Somalia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Bahrain and 2.25 for Somalia, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Somalia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Somalia win
70.8% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bahrain home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Somalia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Somalia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 11% / 18% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Bahrain and 2.25 for Somalia, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
29%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.3%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–39.2%
- 1–18.5%
Recent form
Bahrain
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Yemen · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs United Arab Emirates · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Qatar · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Georgia · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-12-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudan · 3-1 (W)
Somalia
- 2026-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ivory Coast · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gambia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-31T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mauritius · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mauritius · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-11-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Oman · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Somalia win, at 70.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.