Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium · Referee A. Jamali · Analysis updated 18:55 UTC
Bahrain vs United Arab Emirates Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Bahrain and 1.60 for United Arab Emirates, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives United Arab Emirates the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
United Arab Emirates win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bahrain home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
United Arab Emirates away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates United Arab Emirates to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 30% / 25% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Bahrain and 1.60 for United Arab Emirates, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–19.1%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–17.3%
Recent form
Bahrain
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Yemen · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs United Arab Emirates · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Qatar · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Georgia · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-12-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudan · 3-1 (W)
United Arab Emirates
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Saudi Arabia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Oman · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Qatar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bahrain · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T15:55:00.000Z · H vs Yemen · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is United Arab Emirates win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.