· Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
BAK 07 U19 vs Bayern München U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for BAK 07 U19 and 2.28 for Bayern München U19, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Bayern München U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bayern München U19 win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 2.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
BAK 07 U19 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bayern München U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayern München U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 28% / 20% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for BAK 07 U19 and 2.28 for Bayern München U19, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.5%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–36.5%
- 2–16.1%
Recent form
BAK 07 U19
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock U19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Magdeburg U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Holstein Kiel U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen U19 · 0-4 (L)
Bayern München U19
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ingolstadt U19 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ingolstadt U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgart U19 · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Unterhaching U19 · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T11:00:00.000Z · BAK 07 U19 0-3 Bayern München U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2026-02-21T10:00:00.000Z · BAK 07 U19 1-5 Bayern München U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayern München U19 win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.