· Analysis updated 09:28 UTC
BAK 07 U19 vs Hamburger SV U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for BAK 07 U19 and 2.22 for Hamburger SV U19, a combined total of 3.98. That distribution gives Hamburger SV U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Hamburger SV U19 win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 2.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
BAK 07 U19 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hamburger SV U19 away threat
Scored in 8 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hamburger SV U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 31% / 20% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for BAK 07 U19 and 2.22 for Hamburger SV U19, a combined 3.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.1%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.4%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
BAK 07 U19
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock U19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Magdeburg U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Holstein Kiel U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen U19 · 0-4 (L)
Hamburger SV U19
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 U19 · 5-6 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Magdeburg U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock U19 · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel U19 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hamburger SV U19 win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.