BAK '07 vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for BAK '07 and 0.73 for Eintracht Mahlsdorf, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives BAK '07 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

BAK '07 win

57.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

BAK '07 home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Eintracht Mahlsdorf away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BAK '07 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 26% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for BAK '07 and 0.73 for Eintracht Mahlsdorf, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

BAK '07 win57%

Draw26%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

1–015.9%
2–012.3%
1–111.6%
0–010.3%
2–19.0%

Recent form

BAK '07

2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Neustrelitz · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mecklenburg Schwerin · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Lichtenberg · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Reinickendorfer Fuchse · 2-1 (W)

Eintracht Mahlsdorf

2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Optik Rathenow · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Siedenbollentin · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-14T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Luckenwalde · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Altglienicke · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tasmania Berlin · 0-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eintracht Mahlsdorf	9	6	1	2	6	19
2	Reinickendorfer Fuchse	9	5	2	2	4	17
3	Hertha Zehlendorf	9	5	0	4	8	15
4	BAK '07	8	4	3	1	3	15
5	Siedenbollentin	9	4	2	3	5	14
6	Lichtenberg	9	4	2	3	2	14
7	Hansa Rostock II	9	3	4	2	8	13
8	Optik Rathenow	9	4	1	4	3	13
9	Anker Wismar	9	4	1	4	-5	13
10	Tennis Borussia	9	3	3	3	0	12
11	Mecklenburg Schwerin	9	2	4	3	-3	10
12	Sparta Lichtenberg	9	2	3	4	-4	9
13	FC Lok Stendal	8	2	2	4	-3	8
14	Union Klosterfelde	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Makkabi	9	2	2	5	-12	8
16	Neustrelitz	8	2	0	6	-6	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is BAK '07 win, at 57.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.