· Analysis updated 01:47 UTC
BAK '07 vs FC Lok Stendal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for BAK '07 and 1.23 for FC Lok Stendal, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives BAK '07 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
BAK '07 win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
BAK '07 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Lok Stendal away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BAK '07 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for BAK '07 and 1.23 for FC Lok Stendal, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
BAK '07
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Lok Stendal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha Zehlendorf · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Klosterfelde · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Neustrelitz · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf · 1-0 (W)
FC Lok Stendal
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Optik Rathenow · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Siedenbollentin · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lichtenberg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Anker Wismar · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Nordost-Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eintracht Mahlsdorf | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Reinickendorfer Fuchse | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 3 | BAK '07 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Hertha Zehlendorf | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 15 |
| 5 | Siedenbollentin | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Lichtenberg | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Hansa Rostock II | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 8 | Optik Rathenow | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Anker Wismar | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 10 | Tennis Borussia | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Mecklenburg Schwerin | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | FC Lok Stendal | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Sparta Lichtenberg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | Union Klosterfelde | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 | Makkabi | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Neustrelitz | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is BAK '07 win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.