BAK '07 vs Union Klosterfelde Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for BAK '07 and 2.10 for Union Klosterfelde, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Union Klosterfelde the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Union Klosterfelde win

54.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 2.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

BAK '07 home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Union Klosterfelde away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union Klosterfelde to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 25% / 21% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for BAK '07 and 2.10 for Union Klosterfelde, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

BAK '07 win25%

Draw21%

Union Klosterfelde win54%

Double chance 1X

46%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–29.4%
1–18.9%
0–26.8%
1–36.6%
0–16.5%

Recent form

BAK '07

2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Neustrelitz · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mecklenburg Schwerin · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Lichtenberg · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Reinickendorfer Fuchse · 2-1 (W)

Union Klosterfelde

2026-10-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs BAK '07 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Lichtenberg · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Reinickendorfer Fuchse · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Optik Rathenow · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · BAK '07 3-0 Union Klosterfelde (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)
2025-11-23T12:30:00.000Z · BAK '07 1-2 Union Klosterfelde (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eintracht Mahlsdorf	9	6	1	2	6	19
2	Reinickendorfer Fuchse	9	5	2	2	4	17
3	BAK '07	9	4	4	1	3	16
4	Hertha Zehlendorf	9	5	0	4	8	15
5	Siedenbollentin	9	4	2	3	5	14
6	Lichtenberg	9	4	2	3	2	14
7	Hansa Rostock II	9	3	4	2	8	13
8	Optik Rathenow	9	4	1	4	3	13
9	Anker Wismar	9	4	1	4	-5	13
10	Tennis Borussia	9	3	3	3	0	12
11	Mecklenburg Schwerin	9	2	4	3	-3	10
12	FC Lok Stendal	9	2	3	4	-3	9
13	Sparta Lichtenberg	9	2	3	4	-4	9
14	Union Klosterfelde	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Makkabi	9	2	2	5	-12	8
16	Neustrelitz	8	2	0	6	-6	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Union Klosterfelde win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.